Hurricane Season’s Around the Corner. Here’s What to Expect.

5/29/2018 (Permalink)

What New Yorkers need to know to prepare

Reprinted by NYtimes.com

This year’s hurricane season should be normal or slightly more active than average, government forecasters said on Thursday.

After the exceptionally destructive season last year, the prediction might seem like a reprieve of sorts. But a season with few storms can do tremendous damage if a single storm makes landfall. Hurricane season runs from June 1 until Nov. 1 and peaks from mid-August through late October.

“We’re not expecting the season to be one of the most active on record,” said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. But, he said, “It’s time to start getting prepared.”

The agency’s forecasters predicted a 70 percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher. Five to nine of those could become hurricanes, with winds of 74 m.p.h. or higher, and one to four could develop into major hurricanes, which have winds of 111 m.p.h. or higher.

By comparison, an average hurricane season produces 12 named storms. Six of those typically become hurricanes and three develop into major hurricanes.